REFR is starting to attract a little attention, that is good.  Like I said before, this remains my top pick and will be holding all my shares at least up to May 15th, maybe longer.  I watch it minute by minute everyday so if I change my mind for any reason I will tell you on this blog.

Austin

Really nothing new to report, focused on REFR and maintain everything I have said about it.  I am sure you did not get in it at the perfect price point but nobody can really do that.  If you need that perfect price point than you should not read anything I write.  Price target is still $6

The difference between a trade and an investment?  You know for a long time I thought that liking a company and investing in it when its price was down was a smart idea.  However, it is a terrible idea because there is no catalyst.  I recently did this with AAPL, my thinking was clear at the time but now seems convoluted.  What is AAPL?  It's a company that attained the largest market capitalization in the world through ground breaking innovation.  So what was my problem in believing in that?  The problem was and still is that there is no catalyst.  I simply believed that this great company will revolutionize the world again.  They did it with the iPhone so why cant they make a watch just as ground breaking?  I don't know, maybe they can, the point is I acted on the impulse, I believed that AAPL is so great that they will come out with something great again.  I have no information to work with except for their past performance.  As information becomes instantaneously priced into the market, acting on past performance is simply stupid. AAPL is an investment that offers some dividend protection and should continue to grow, slower than we want but it should still grow.  To trade AAPL with no catalyst was not a good idea.  Well, I did have expectations for a catalyst, I thought there would be a substantial dividend increase, but that was based more on expectation than substantial information.  AAPL never said it was going to increase its dividend, I just expected AAPL to do it.  Unfortunately I am not the CEO so I traded on what I thought should happen rather than trading on actual information.  This is why I love trading micro cap stocks.  Important information is actually stated in conference calls.  The best part is that institutional investors pay no attention to these companies and their conference calls because the market cap is too small for them to make significant money.  The best stocks in the world are followed by the dumbest players in the market.  Why? Because they are attracted to the number of shares they can buy and the possibility of hitting a ten bagger.  That is why when I was 14 years old I invested in a company that supposedly made laser keyboards.  Just looking at their shitty website and zero sales should have given it away, but the idea in my head of using a laser as a keyboard seemed so cool that I threw money at it. Stay away from these scams, better yet you should short them.  The important thing to remember is that micro cap stocks provide you the opportunity to find legitimate stocks that are screaming undervalued and have real catalysts.  Because these legit companies are not claiming that they found a cure for AIDS or just figured out how to eliminate hurricanes, they are heavily shorted and that is why I rely on the catalysts.  The catalyst is do or die time.  If a CEO makes it clear that a big deal with Mercedes is going to happen then all I can do as a trader is look at the CEO's credibility.  In the case of REFR, the CEO checks out and all the executives have bought stock on the open market.  Essentially they are frustrated with the stock price.  There is no doubt that REFR is a choppy stock, but that is not the trade.  The trade is the main catalyst.  The CEO made it clear that on May 15th the Mercedes S-Class will be introduced at the Hamburg, Germany Autoshow and REFR's Smart glass will be an option in it.  This is the catalyst and if that catalyst does not transpire, it is then that I sell and move to the next great company that has a viable catalyst.

Trade smart,
Austin

Rough market today.  Prayers go out to the people of Boston.  Fundamentally REFR has not changed and I currently hold a large position in the stock.  This is still my favorite pick for the month of April, however, the beta dictated the decline today, that is the way the market works.  Picked up some KTOS due to its growth potential and because its a defense stock.  $VIX spiked 43% today, hopefully my options strategy from a few weeks ago gained you some money today.  Sticking with REFR

Concise REFR Research

REFR currently operates in four main industries using their SPD-Smart Technology; automotive, aircraft, architectural, and marine.

The company recently reported 2012 results which included: Fee income increased from $846,000 in fiscal year 2011 to just under $2 million in fiscal year 2012, representing an absolute increase of $1.1 million year-over-year, and a relative increase of 131%. 84% of REFR’s fee income is attributed to the automotive industry. This is positive because our catalyst for an increase in stock price is the May 15th launch of the 2014 Mercedes S-Class that should have REFR Smart Glass as an option.

REFR has $13.4 million in cash, enough to fund their current operations for the next five years. This is positive because there is little need to issue new shares to raise capital so share dilution is not a risk for a short term investor. Remember we are only holding this for a month or two.

Institutional ownership of REFR increased from 8% to 20% and as more institutional investors become attracted to the company, more analysts are starting to follow the company. Currently two analysts rate the company as a BUY. Kevin Douglas, the guy that bought a 20% stake in IMAX when nobody believed in the company is also heavily buying shares of REFR, supposedly owning over 12% of all shares outstanding and still buying. http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/02/kevin-douglas-the-greatest-unknown-investor/

Question: Why has REFR’s stock price been dropping?

Seth Van Voorhees - Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Business Development 

Obviously, this is a hard question, we can’t control the stock price, it is the market that does that. I can tell you that we are – we are disappointed in the recent stock price performance with declines. We are disappointed for a number of reasons, most of the management have significant personal stakes in this company. In last year, we reported as in aggregate management and directors own approximately 15% to 16% of the stock in this company which is both a significant personal as well as professional investment. So, we believe strongly in the value of this company and very much want to see strong stock price performance from both a personal and professional basis. I think the best thing that we can do is get to a breakeven and profitable basis and we hope to do that as quickly as we can. And until then, we are going to continue to try to do everything that we can to make Research Frontiers an attractive investment whether it’s – we were talking about improving liquidity, improving transparency and communication with our investors and getting our message out to potential new investors as well.

Questions to Joseph Harary- CEO:

Does REFR expect additional announcements concerning additional luxury vehicle models?

Joseph Harary: Yes.

Am I still optimistic from our October 12th presentation that SPD will be in another production vehicle behind the SL and SLK by July 1, 2013?

Joseph Harary: Yes.

Can we comment on recent articles that describe a special event being held in the automotive industry to launch a new S-Class and also comment on reports that the S-Class will use Research Frontiers’ SPD-SmartGlass technology?

Joseph Harary: I’m somewhat limited because we have NDAs in place with all the world’s major auto companies, so we can’t say anything definitive until they say something. However, I can say that the automotive press usually get things right and also this is because there is a good dialog between the automotive press and the automakers. And these articles are awesome, very incredible publications. And to those who have not read the articles, they are saying that the new S-Class is being launched on May 15th in Hamburg, Germany and that the new S-Class will be in showrooms this September and will offer Magic Sky Control as an option. So, while we can’t confirm this at this time, if this SPD SmartGlass did appear on the new S-Class, it would be a highly significant event for Research Frontiers.

Austin Malone- This was the REFR research I promised, sorry for the wait, in conclusion I like this CEO and I like REFR.  His answer to that last question almost made me laugh.  I mean he could not be anymore direct in telling investors that the Mercedes S-Class will incorporate REFR's Smart Glass Technology.  That is awesome.  This stock should run up in anticipation of this deal, right now the deal is really unknown so the stock has not moved much but as May 15th approaches investors will jump into this stock and the more than one million shares shorted should get squeezed.  Price target $6

Time to buy REFR, trading at $4.25

If you have not bought REFR, now might be your best opportunity. Should go up later today and into tomorrow. My price target leading towards May 15th is $6 a share so you have plenty of upside. The CEO has made it as clear as he can without breaking SEC rules that the Mercedes S class will use smart glass technology. The CEO says that this will benefit the company financially in a great way. Also, the CEO knows that the stock price is way too undervalued, he actually said that. Executives are also picking up shares as well as the guy who bought 20% of IMAX when nobody believed in it. This stock could literally double.

Bought ONVO at $3.71 based on a double bottom. I am holding this company due to a partnership with Pfizer and Autodesk. Furthermore 3D printing is a hot trend in the market and I think this company should go up 10-25% from its current price in the month of April. Their management is confident and is releasing information about some of their tests on April 22nd. What I am looking for is a run up toward this announcement on April 22nd, I have no intention of holding this stock when the news is announced or after news is announced. I am simply looking for the run up to the announcement. This stock has the potential to reach $5 a share because its volatile so use a stop loss if you buy it. My number one pick for April remains REFR and is my longest position. The important thing to remember about REFR is that you have to be patient because the catalyst is May 15th. If you go back to my older posts you will see that the Mercedes S class is going to be unveiled and should have the option to include REFR's smart glass. Stock will go up its just a matter of when.

Picked up shares of ECTY as a small speculative trade. More of a technical momentum based trade than anything else, looking for a 4-5% move tomorrow and ill sell, bought at $1.18 and will put in a stop at $1.15.

KTOS

Bought KTOS at $4.03, micro cap around $280 million, I like it because the CEO is buying shares on the open market, the latest quarter KTOS reported a wider quarterly loss due to an impairment of goodwill and intangibles expenses despite a rise in revenue. The company guided fiscal 2013 revenue below consensus. However the company is getting contracts for missile defense, drones, missile technology, etc. They are getting a lot of contracts and these should continue especially as North Korea is going nuts with warmongering tactics. Stock is rising so I am riding the wave.

REFR announced today that they are coming out with a new power auto shade product for airplanes that the company will present at The Hamburg Germany Airshow next week. This is just one small piece of the news that is coming throughout the month and into May. The big announcement will be the Mercedes S class announcement. Sticking with this stock and am behind on putting out my report so I will get to work on it now. Long term buy TTS and AAPL 2015 leaps

Still long REFR, AAPL leaps, and TTS. REFR should go up tomorrow as a research piece released tomorrow will drive the demand for this stock higher. At some point this month their will be another short squeeze. Price target remains $6 and as more investors become aware of REFR's technology being used in the Mercedes S class the share price will increase. I am still working on my buy analysis of REFR much of which consists of the piece from the CEO that I posted yesterday. There are other companies increasing their demand for this glass that I will detail in my report. More to come.

REFR, and other updated trades

Staying long REFR, remember this is a position that I am holding through April and into May (specifically approaching May 15, as you will read below). Still working on a report on the stock that I should post tomorrow or ASAP. Price target remains $6/share. Long TTS, APPL leaps, took some profits in CRAY but still remain bullish on this long term investment, APP price target is $3/share. I will continue working on the REFR research report and get it on this blog ASAP. Technically REFR looks great, the shorts are all in now and the stock is trending back higher, should see a pop tomorrow or in the next few days as shorts are forced to cover and hype continues to drive in buyers. I will hold all my shares. An important part of my report details the following quote from REFR's CEO Joseph Harary "Do we expect additional announcements concerning additional luxury vehicle models? Yes. Am I still optimistic from our October 12th presentation that SPD will be another production vehicle behind the SL and SLK by July 1, 2013? Yes. Can we comment on recent articles that describe special events being held in the automotive industry to launch a new S-Class and also comment on reports that the S-Class will use Research Frontiers’ SPD-SmartGlass technology. I’m somewhat limited because we have NDAs in place with all the world’s major auto companies, we can’t say anything definitive until they say something. However, I can say that the automotive press usually get things right and also this is because there is a good dialog between the automotive press and the automakers. And these articles are awesome, very incredible publications. And to those who have not read the articles, they are saying that the new S-Class is being launched on May 15th in Hamburg, Germany and that the new S-Class will be in showrooms this September and will offer Magic Sky Control as an option. So, while we can’t confirm this at this time, if this SPD SmartGlass did appear on the new S-Class, it would be a highly significant event for Research Frontiers."

Speculative play of the month!!!

REFR-up huge today, it will hit $6 this month. Explain in a little while. I bought at $4.17 A small piece of my upcoming story is that Kevin Douglas, considered by some as the greatest unknown investor owns 11% of the shares outstanding in REFR. He was the same guy that bought 20% of IMAX when nobody believed in it. Okay so basically the new Mercedes S class that is rolling out next month will use REFR's push button glass tint. This is a huge deal for such a small company. The CEO directly hinted at this in their latest conference call but the market cap on REFR is too small for any institutional investors to pay attention to. Price target $6 and I bet it pops again tomorrow.